We’re thrilled to share that the Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) unanimously voted to adopt the Regional Shoreline Adaptation Plan (RSAP) Bay Plan Amendment on December 5, 2024!
As sea levels continue to rise in the near and long-term, the need for a coordinated approach for sea level rise adaptation initiatives along the Bay shoreline becomes more important than ever. With the adoption of the RSAP, BCDC is addressing the need to proactively protect our most at-risk communities, critical infrastructure, natural habitats, and public access along the bay.
The RSAP is the next iteration of BCDC’s shift to a more holistic focus including the protection of the people and communities who live along the San Francisco Bay. The RSAP provides a series of strategic adaptation approaches that emphasize nature-based solutions such as restoring natural ecosystems, building ecotone levees (which link flood management levees to tidal marshes), or raising land elevation. Nature-based approaches, such as marsh restoration, provide multiple benefits, including flood protection, habitat conservation, and the creation of public green spaces.
When addressing sea level rise and other climate risks, it is essential to work across jurisdictional borders and consider how subregions will address these challenges collectively. The RSAP also recommends seawalls where appropriate and nonphysical strategies like the implementation of special resilience districts that could include establishing financial mechanisms to support resilience initiatives and engage local communities. For example, our Director of Planning and Research, Sadie Wilson wrote a paper in 2021 recommending resilience districts in Contra Costa County. Community-based solutions like these can help implement RSAP Guidelines in local jurisdictions.
Why the RSAP is Needed Now
Rising sea levels, driven by climate change, are already impacting our shorelines and will continue to accelerate in the coming decades. According to the Ocean Protection Council, the Bay Area could experience up to 1 foot of sea level rise by 2050 and between 3 and 6.5 feet by 2100.
The effects of sea level rise—and the resources needed to plan for and address them—are unevenly distributed across the Bay Area’s nine counties. If each community acts in isolation, we risk unintended consequences such as flooding neighboring areas, and leaving vulnerable communities without the resources to adapt. Without effective adaptation strategies, sea level rise could severely impact jobs, housing, and disproportionately affect low-income communities of color, while also threatening wetlands and coastal ecosystems. The RSAP presents an opportunity to find collective solutions that benefit both local communities and the region as a whole.
What will the RSAP do:
- Establish a regional vision for successful sea level rise adaptation.
- Guide local governments as they prepare local adaptation plans.
- Reduce flood risk by aligning local and regional priorities.
- Coordinate adaptation projects across multiple jurisdictions.
- Standardize and simplify adaptation methods and data.
- Drive regionally coordinated project implementation.
- Uphold environmental justice by requiring local plans to consider equity.
This effort will pave the way for how cities and practitioners can take action for a more resilient shoreline. With the adoption of the RSAP, local jurisdictions within BCDC’s shoreline will need to complete Subregional Plans guided by the RSAP. While these plans are required to be completed by January 2034 (as required in part by SB 272), BCDC and Greenbelt Alliance will support local communities in implementing adaptation plans to protect our region.
Greenbelt Alliance’s Role in the RSAP
Header and gallery photos by Karl Nielsen/Greenbelt Alliance. Check out the full album.
Since 2019, Greenbelt Alliance has partnered with BCDC in advocating for stronger regional guidelines for supporting shoreline development. Our Executive Director, Amanda Brown-Stevens, played a pivotal role in BCDC’s Leadership Advisory Group which provided strategic direction, feedback on proposals, and leadership in the creation and implementation of the Bay Adapt Joint Platform. Since 2023, Greenbelt Alliance has been supporting BCDC’s efforts of implementing and tracking the Joint Platform in addition to supporting the creation of the RSAP itself.
In the summer of 2024, Greenbelt Alliance, in partnership with BCDC and community-based organizations across the region (Sustainable Solano, The Watershed Project, Canal Alliance, Hood Planning, and Climate Resilient Communities) led five workshops to identify how the draft RSAP Guidelines would help different locations with differing conditions, levels of capacity, and progress on adaptation planning. Read more about these community workshops here.
The passage of California’s Proposition 4— a $10 billion climate bond—will provide critical funding to support local sea level rise adaptation efforts.
A 2023 report by Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) estimates that protecting all portions of the shoreline that will experience sea level rise and storm surge by 2050 will conservatively cost $f110 billion. At the time of publication (during the Biden administration), the report estimated that of that amount, Bay Area governments can account for just over $5 billion being available through existing federal, state, regional, and local funding programs. This leaves a gap of approximately $105 billion to fill in the next decades; and with the upcoming administration, we expect federal support for sea level rise initiatives to decrease.
While the cost of tackling this regional challenge is significant, failing to adapt would result in a much larger expense—MTC estimates that the cost of inaction is anticipated to be over $230 billion. The impact will be especially devastating for lower-income communities, displacing residents and exacerbating social inequality. Vulnerable shoreline habitats, home to endangered species and critical to global bird migration, will be overwhelmed. Essential infrastructure that supports the movement of people and goods, provides energy and water, and enables basic services like waste management, will be rendered ineffective unless we implement a coordinated, regional solution to these challenges. The RSAP aims to do just that.
Greenbelt Alliance is Supporting Subregions Across the Bay in their Adaptation Efforts
In anticipation of rising tides and the RSAP guidelines, many cities and subregions across the Bay have already gotten a head start on their sea level rise planning. Greenbelt Alliance is supporting several Bay Area cities in adapting their shorelines and communities to rising seas. On the Oakland Alameda shoreline, our North Bay Resilience Manager Victor Flores and Director of Climate Resilience, Zoe Siegel, lead the Community Partner team of the Oakland Alameda Adaptation Committee. Working in partnership with Hood Planning, Ninth Root, CASA, the REAP Climate Center and with support from the Sogorea Te Land Trust the Community Partner team seeks to ensure as many Oakland and Alameda community members are engaged and aware of the adaptation efforts. We recently had two community workshops that you can learn more about here.
Across the Bay in Marin City and the Canal District of San Rafael, Greenbelt Alliance is part of the Marin Climate Justice Collaborative (MCJC) which works to ensure a safe and equitable future for low-income residents and communities of color in Marin County, who are at risk of displacement from sea level rise and other effects of climate change. Zoe also sits on the Technical Advisory Committee for the City of San Rafael.
In the eastern part of the Bay in Suisun City, the Suisun Fairfield Sewer District is leading the Solano Bayshore Resilience Roundtable to foster resilient projects and citizen engagement through shared values, joint initiatives, and coordinated efforts. Our Director of Planning and Research, Sadie Wilson sits on this roundtable and Greenbelt Alliance will be supporting community engagement efforts in the future. Also in Suisun, Greenbelt Alliance in partnership with Sustainable Solano launched Resilient Roots, a climate education program is equipping 20 Suisun City and Fairfield residents with the tools and resources to champion climate action in their own communities, which are threatened by sea level rise and flooding.
San Rafael and Marin City, Oakland and Alameda, and Suisun and Fairfield are proactively working in partnership with nearby communities and collectively re-en envision what our shared shorelines and waterways will need to look like and we are hopeful more communities and subregions will follow.
The Future of Shoreline Adaptation: Bay Area Shoreline Communities Cannot Afford to Wait
The passage of California’s Proposition 4— a $10 billion climate bond—will provide critical funding to support local sea level rise adaptation efforts.
A 2023 report by MTC estimates that protecting all portions of the shoreline that will experience sea level rise and storm surge by 2050 will conservatively cost $110 billion. At the time of publication (during the Biden administration), the report estimated that of that amount, Bay Area governments can account for just over $5 billion being available through existing federal, state, regional, and local funding programs. This leaves a gap of approximately $105 billion to fill in the next decades; and with the upcoming administration, we expect federal support for sea level rise initiatives to decrease.
While the cost of tackling this regional challenge is significant, failing to adapt would result in a much larger expense—MTC estimates that the cost of inaction is anticipated to be over $230 billion. The impact will be especially devastating for lower-income communities, displacing residents and exacerbating social inequality. Vulnerable shoreline habitats, home to endangered species and critical to global bird migration, will be overwhelmed. Essential infrastructure that supports the movement of people and goods, provides energy and water, and enables basic services like waste management, will be rendered ineffective unless we implement a coordinated, regional solution to these challenges. The RSAP aims to do just that.
While local jurisdictions within BCDC’s shoreline have until January 2034 to complete Subregional Plans according to the Guidelines in the RSAP, the speed and accuracy of how this happens depends on the capacity and interest of the city. It is up to active citizens to get engaged on critical sea level rise issues and make sure our communities are tackling sea level threats now and into the future.
